Notre Dame is 3-0, but Saturday’s trip to Purdue comes with a big number attached. The Irish are being asked to win by four touchdowns against a team that has kept scoring even while losing its last two games.

The Boilermakers fell 52-38 at UCLA last week, while Notre Dame beat Michigan State 27-10. That sets up Purdue’s passing production against an Irish defense that has been much better after halftime.

My Notre Dame vs Purdue prediction starts with the spread. I’ll then compare the odds, explain how to watch Saturday’s game and put the recent head-to-head results in context.

I’m backing Notre Dame to cover, and the defense is the main reason. The Irish held Michigan State to 40 total yards and no rushing yards in the second half last week. A seven-point halftime lead turned into a 27-10 win because the Spartans could not move the ball after the break.

That followed a similar finish against Wisconsin. Notre Dame outscored the Badgers 28-3 in the second half of its 41-13 season-opening win. This spread needs the Irish to pull away late, and those finishes give me more confidence than the unbeaten record on its own.

Purdue can test that defense. Ryan Browne completed 19 of 30 passes for 378 yards and three touchdowns at UCLA, setting another career high. The bigger point is that the Boilermakers have enough passing to keep a big favorite uncomfortable.

The problem for Purdue is turning that offense into a complete game. It scored 36 points in a double-overtime loss to Wake Forest, then 38 at UCLA. Those losses show that scoring in the 30s does not help much when the defense cannot get stops.

CJ Carr does not need to force anything if Notre Dame keeps Purdue behind schedule. I expect the Irish to control the second half again and pull away as the game goes on. At -27.5, a 28-point win is enough to cover, and I would lose interest once the number moves past four touchdowns.