Utah travels to Ames on Saturday, September 26, after shutting out Utah State 33-0. Iowa State is 2-1 and coming off a 55-7 win over Bowling Green, giving both teams plenty to build on before their meeting at Jack Trice Stadium.

The Utes have been difficult to beat with explosive plays. Iowa State presents a different challenge: an offense that runs on roughly two-thirds of its snaps and has found several ways to get Aiden Flora the ball.

My Utah vs Iowa State prediction starts with how those styles fit together. Below are my total pick, updated Kalshi prices and the matchup numbers I am using to evaluate Saturday’s game.

I like the under because Iowa State’s approach can reduce the number of possessions, while Utah has limited the long gains that turn ordinary drives into quick touchdowns. The Cyclones run on 66.1% of their plays and average 55 offensive snaps per game. That is a useful starting point for a lower-scoring matchup.

Utah has allowed just two plays of 25 yards or more through three games. That does not guarantee Iowa State will struggle, but it puts more pressure on the Cyclones to string together successful plays. A run-heavy offense has less room for an early penalty or tackle for loss if it cannot recover with a chunk pass.

Jaylen Raynor has 39 career starts and 40 appearances in the college ranks, so Iowa State is not sending an inexperienced quarterback into this matchup. Still, no Cyclones player has caught more than three passes in a game this season. I would rather back their ability to use the clock than count on a high-volume passing performance.

There is a clear risk to the under: Devon Dampier. Utah’s quarterback has thrown at least two touchdown passes in nine straight games dating back to Week 8 of the 2025 season, and the Utes have converted 14 of 22 third downs requiring at least four yards. Sustained drives can consume time, but finishing them with touchdowns would make this total uncomfortable.

I am taking the defensive matchup and Iowa State’s limited snap count over the big scores both teams posted last week. This is a total selection, not a claim that either offense is incapable of scoring. The No contract wins with 47 or fewer combined points.