A close spread does not automatically make an underdog worth backing outright. Today’s college football slate has several tempting prices, but I want more than a big payout before picking against the favorite.

For my Week 4 college football upset predictions, I compared many matchups and narrowed the list to three. Recent results matter, though a September blowout against an overmatched opponent can hide as much as it reveals.

Below are my top underdog picks for September 26, followed by the matchup evidence and the biggest obstacle for each team. These are individual outright-win selections, not spread bets or a parlay.

USC and UCF prices checked September 25; Iowa’s +180 checked September 26 at BetMGM Ontario. Local prices may differ.

USC and UCF are short home underdogs on the college football odds board, while Iowa offers a bigger payout on the road at Michigan. All three picks require an outright win.

Jayden Maiava provides an excellent reason to take the home underdog. Through USC’s first four games, he’s completed 75.7% of his passes for 1,173 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception. That efficiency makes the Trojans dangerous without needing a string of Oregon mistakes.

The 4-0 Trojans have been especially good early, outscoring opponents 106-24 in first halves. Their second-half margin is a far less convincing 66-67, so I am not overlooking how quickly this game could turn if USC stalls after halftime.

Oregon’s latest result was an 84-0 win over Portland State. The Ducks had scored 65 points and allowed 66 across their first two games, which is the more useful reminder that their defense has faced tougher questions than last Saturday’s score suggests.