No. 4 Ole Miss visits No. 21 Florida on Saturday, September 26, with both teams sitting at 3-0. Kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and neither team had an easy time getting through its SEC opener.

The Rebels beat LSU 32-24, while the Gators escaped Auburn with a 44-39 victory. Florida brings a productive rushing attack home to Gainesville, but Ole Miss has the quarterback to keep this game uncomfortable well into the fourth quarter.

My final Ole Miss vs Florida prediction comes down to how those offenses match up, rather than which team has the cleaner record. Here is where I land on the spread and total, with the updated prices and the players driving those picks.

I am taking Florida at home, with its running game the biggest reason. Jadan Baugh has rushed for 458 yards and eight touchdowns through three games. That gives the Gators a reliable way to move the chains without asking Aaron Philo to match Trinidad Chambliss throw for throw.

Baugh is not the only reason I like this offense. Philo has thrown for 721 yards and six touchdowns, so loading the box carries a cost. Florida can make Ole Miss defend the run first and still punish a defense that commits too many bodies to stopping it.

The obvious concern is what happened on the other side of the ball at Auburn. Allowing 39 points is hardly a reason to call Florida’s defense dominant. I expect the Gators to give up scoring drives here, which is why my prediction is that Ole Miss will reach the high twenties rather than being shut down.

Chambliss threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns against LSU, with Traylon Ray contributing 115 yards on seven receptions. Those performances are a reminder that Florida will need to finish its own drives. Field goals could leave the door open for Ole Miss to take control late.

BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and Bet365 prices checked September 26 at 10:06 AM ET. American odds rounded from the listed decimal prices.