The undefeated, third-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) head south to clash with the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1, 0-1 ACC) today in a Week 5 matchup. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET at Kenan Stadium.

Notre Dame rolls into this contest riding a dominant four-game winning streak as an FBS Independent, firmly establishing themselves as a massive road favorite. North Carolina is looking to bounce back from a 28-20 defeat at Clemson.

That contrast in form is reflected in the large spread. Below, I break down my Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction and picks, the latest odds and how to watch the Oct. 3 contest

My favorite pick today is Notre Dame -20.5. Laying three touchdowns on the road is never a comfortable proposition, but the underlying metrics heavily favor a blowout. North Carolina relies on a ground and pound attack averaging 155 rushing yards per game, but they are running directly into a brick wall. Notre Dame’s defensive schemes allow an FBS-elite 1.75 yards per carry and just 53.8 rushing yards per game.

If the home squad gets behind schedule on standard downs, quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. will face an aggressive pass rush that has already generated 13 sacks. Edwards is completing just 56.4% of his passes and has eaten seven sacks this season. That spells trouble for their red zone efficiency against a National Championship odds contender that thrives on creating havoc.

On the flip side, quarterback CJ Carr runs an incredibly efficient passing offense for the visitors. The Heisman Trophy odds candidate boasts a 70.5% completion rate and a stellar 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Considering North Carolina allows opponents to convert 44.4% of third down conversions, I see Notre Dame as well positioned to sustain drives and have a strong chance to cover this number, though the road spread remains substantial.

The most glaring disparity in this matchup is the explosive visiting offense lining up against a defense that struggles to plug the gaps. The visitors are hanging 42.3 points per game on their opponents, fueled by a +7 turnover differential. They take care of the football and punish mistakes, which is a lethal combination.

On the other side of the ball, the matchup is equally grim. The home offense averages 23.3 points per game across three contests. They are running into a relentless defensive front that has already logged 13 sacks. The statistical mismatch heavily supports a dominant showing in the trenches for the favorite.