Week 4 in the NFL can be a little bit dangerous. Some bettors believe they have enough of a sample size at this point to know which teams are, and are not, good. But win-loss records and even surface-level stats can often be misleading this early in the season. Teams play good/bad games, and match up well/poorly against other rosters/schemes.

Digging a little bit deeper into some advanced metrics, like turnover vs net yards per play divergence or success rate differential, gives us a better understanding of all 32 teams, and how they match up against their respective Week 4 opponents. On top of that, I like to seek out teaser opportunities that get the spread through both key numbers of 3 and 7.

Pairing both of these together dramatically improves the probability of winning your bet. But teasing comes with a cost – taking -300(ish) odds. You can increase that potential payout, while keeping your edge, by throwing 2-3 of these teased spreads into a parlay. That’s what I’ve done for Week 4! You can see the three legs I am parlaying below.

The best Week 4 NFL parlay consists of three alternate spreads: the Bills -1, Seahawks -1, and Falcons +8.5.

While the Bills and Seahawks’ spreads sit on 7, we’re dodging the push and getting through the other key number of 3. Some sportsbooks may not let you take them at -1, as the smallest spread some offer is 1.5 since the sportsbooks want to avoid a push too. The Falcons pick is a perfect 6-point tease opportunity, as it gets us through both 3 and 7.

While you would have to alter this NFL parlay a touch – taking -1.5 on both the Bills and Seahawks – you can trade this “combo” at prediction markets now. Depending on the ask price of a contract at the time you wish to trade, you could get a very favorable price on this Week 4 NFL parlay. If you’re not already registered, you can claim a great promo when signing up at Kalshi now .

I’ll dive into the advanced metrics behind each of these three picks below.

Leg 1 of my Week 4 parlay is the Bills -1 against the Patriots. The Bills come up just shy of my ideal threshold in every one of the advanced metrics I prefer. But they do have an advantage over the Patriots in each one, and the ideal thresholds are in place to signal a team who is going to cover their standard spread, not a teased one. So, the Bills spread is not only in the ideal range for teasing, but the advanced metrics say the 7-point spread is a little risky as well.