Illinois visits No. 7 Ohio State on Saturday, September 26, with both teams looking for their third win. Kickoff at Ohio Stadium is noon ET on FOX, and the Buckeyes enter as a substantial home favorite.

The Illini have averaged 39 points through their first three games, with quarterback Katin Houser and receiver Collin Dixon leading the passing attack. Ohio State brings a home defensive streak that stretches back to 2022.

Below, I break down my Illinois vs Ohio State prediction, the latest college football odds , and the matchup that will decide whether the Illini can keep this competitive.

I’m laying the points with Ohio State. A four-touchdown margin is a demanding target, but the Buckeyes’ ability to prevent big gains is the strongest reason to back them against an Illinois offense that has leaned heavily on its passing game.

Through three games, Ohio State has allowed just three plays of 20-plus yards. It has also held opponents below 20 points in 24 consecutive home games. Those are different samples, but both support the same concern for Illinois: long scoring drives will be hard to sustain.

Houser has completed 85.7% of his play-action attempts this season, with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Ohio State needs to make him throw without that help. If the Illini fall behind and have to abandon the run, the Buckeyes can defend a more predictable offense.

On the other side, Julian Sayin has thrown a touchdown in 17 consecutive games. Ja’Kobi Jackson has four rushing scores through his first three Ohio State appearances, giving the home team a way to finish drives without relying entirely on its receivers.

The risk is a late Illinois score against a big lead. Still, I prefer Ohio State’s balance and defensive consistency at this number. A 28-point win covers -27; I would reassess rather than chase if the spread moves beyond four touchdowns.