Florida takes its unbeaten record to Columbia on Saturday, October 3, for a 3:30 p.m. ET matchup with Missouri on ABC. The Gators are 4-0, while the Tigers return home at 3-1.

Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28 last weekend behind another strong rushing performance. Missouri is looking to respond after a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State, where a late comeback fell short.

Below, I break down my Florida vs Missouri prediction, the matchup in the trenches and the early betting line for this SEC contest.

I’m taking Missouri +4.5. Florida deserves to be favored after what it did to Ole Miss, but the Tigers’ run defense gives them a way to keep this within one possession. Getting more than a field goal at home is the part of this price that appeals to me.

Jadan Baugh rushed for 142 yards and three touchdowns against Ole Miss, while Duke Clark added 126 yards and a score on 12 carries. Missouri cannot simply load up to stop one back. Both runners can punish missed tackles and keep Florida ahead of the chains.

The Tigers have allowed 100.3 rushing yards per game and 2.77 yards per carry through four games. Those numbers will get a serious test here, but they are why I’m willing to back the underdog. Slowing Florida on early downs would force the Gators to win more passing situations.

Missouri also showed enough offensive life in Starkville to stay involved. Jamal Roberts ran for 95 yards on 26 carries, and Cayden Lee caught two touchdown passes. I expect the Tigers to find scoring opportunities at home, even if they cannot completely shut down Florida’s backfield.

I also like Over 56.5. Florida has enough rushing depth to keep producing even against a stronger front, while Missouri’s late push against Mississippi State showed its ability to answer. The risk is the Tigers slowing this down more effectively than I expect, but my lean is toward both offenses doing their share.