#5 Ohio State visits #14 Iowa on Saturday, with both teams coming off wins in their Big Ten openers. Kickoff at Kinnick Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

The Buckeyes beat Illinois 42-19 to improve to 3-1. Iowa remained unbeaten at 4-0 when Hank Brown found Reece Vander Zee for a touchdown on the final play of a 20-19 win at Michigan.

The early line makes Ohio State a sizable road favorite. Below are my Ohio State vs Iowa prediction, a look at the early odds and how to watch Saturday’s matchup.

I’m taking Under 45.5. My case starts with Iowa’s ability to keep a game competitive without turning it into a shootout. The Hawkeyes held Michigan to 19 points last week and needed every bit of that defensive effort to escape Ann Arbor.

The bigger question is how much Iowa can contribute offensively against a top National Championship odds contender. The Hawkeyes rushed for only 58 yards on 24 carries at Michigan. Brown’s late touchdown drive was excellent, but that finish should not hide an afternoon in which Iowa struggled to establish its ground game.

Ohio State’s passing attack is the clear risk to this pick. Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards against Illinois, with Heisman Trophy odds candidate Jeremiah Smith accounting for 217 receiving yards. Iowa cannot afford to give that combination easy explosives or leave its defense protecting short fields.

For the Under to cash, I need Iowa to make Ohio State work through longer possessions and finish some drives with field goals. That is a tougher ask than last week, but I prefer the total to laying nearly two touchdowns at Kinnick. A few stalled Iowa drives could matter just as much as its defensive stops.

Iowa’s win at Michigan deserves credit, but the way it happened matters for this total. The Hawkeyes finished with 285 yards while allowing 429. Brown threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns, yet Iowa still needed a 91-yard drive at the end to pull the game out.