The UEFA Nations League regular season continues as host Belgium faces visiting France on September 28, 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 2:45 PM ET at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussels. Both sides opened their campaigns with wins – Belgium cruised to a 2-0 road victory against Italy, while France ground out a 1-0 away win against Turkiye thanks to a Kylian Mbappé goal.

However, France will be without Mbappé for this one after he picked up a knee injury in that opener.

France arrives as the road favorite, leaning on proven quality even without their talisman. Belgium will look to exploit Mbappé’s absence and ride the confidence of a dominant opening performance.

I’ll break down the numbers from the opening round and identify the best betting angles for this Nations League showdown.

Both teams sit on three points after winning their respective openers, but how they got there tells very different stories.

Belgium’s 2-0 away win was comprehensive. They peppered the opposition with 16 shots (8 on target), scored in both halves, and kept a clean sheet – all while conceding the majority of possession at just 46%. Dodi Lukebakio and Mika Godts got on the scoresheet, while De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere each registered an assist.

France’s 1-0 win was far more controlled and conservative. Dominating possession at 62%, they were content to dictate tempo rather than create volume, managing just 10 shots (4 on target). Mbappé’s second-half strike was the difference, with Michael Olise providing the assist.

The contrast is clear: Belgium were far more direct and dangerous in front of goal despite seeing less of the ball. France controlled the game but created relatively little. Now remove Mbappé – the man who scored their only goal – and France’s already modest attacking output looks even more concerning.