No. 19 USC (5-1) visits Penn State (3-2) after a 25-21 win over Washington on October 3. The Trojans face an unranked Nittany Lions team trying to end a two-game losing streak. NBC will carry the broadcast on Saturday, October 10 at 7:30 PM ET.

Penn State surrendered 413 rushing yards in its shocking 34-13 loss at Northwestern on October 2. That defensive performance is a key concern as the Nittany Lions return home as slight favorites. Over its last six-plus quarters, Penn State has been outscored 58-16, blowing a 17-point lead to Wisconsin, then losing by three touchdowns to Northwestern.

Below is my USC vs Penn State prediction, followed by the early spread, betting odds and matchup stats behind my picks.

When breaking down the USC vs Penn State spread, I see a near-perfect coin toss on paper. However, USC has a clear edge offensively. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is distributing the football efficiently, passing for 290.7 yards per game. He leads an offense generating 467.8 total yards per contest and 6.65 yards per play.

Penn State just allowed over 400 rushing yards to Northwestern. USC features a balanced ground attack averaging 156.2 rushing yards per game. If the Trojans can establish the run early, they will neutralize the raucous crowd and keep Maiava out of predictable third down conversions against a stingy pass defense. Getting points with the more explosive offense is a massive advantage.

As explosive as the USC passing attack is, Lincoln Riley’s goal is always to establish the run. The best USC performances come when USC can play with an avalanche style, picking up first down after first down both in the air and on the ground.

The early betting action clearly favored a lower-scoring script, driving the total down from an opening 56.5 to 54.5. Penn State operates a methodical, lower-volume offense, averaging just 6.10 yards per play. Quarterback Rocco Becht will face a Trojans defense that allows just 25.5 points per game. I am pulling the trigger on the Under.

Same Game Parlay: USC +1.5 & Under 54.5