No. 1 Montana State puts its unbeaten record on the line against No. 18 Northern Arizona on Saturday, September 26. The Bobcats are 4-0, while the Lumberjacks arrive at 3-1 with their only defeat coming against Arizona.

Both teams won last week, but neither result should be reduced to a vague blowout label. Montana State escaped Central Connecticut State 35-30, and Northern Arizona beat Utah Tech 35-23. This is a ranked Big Sky matchup with more to consider than the favorite’s reputation.

My Northern Arizona vs Montana State prediction backs the Bobcats to pull away, with the price and winning margin doing most of the work. The latest Kalshi spread markets and ESPN2 viewing details follow.

I’m backing Montana State, but I prefer the 18-point threshold to asking the Bobcats to clear three touchdowns. Their offense has enough balance to build a lead without relying on one type of play, and the defense gives them a chance to create separation after halftime.

Through four games, Montana State averages 422 yards and 40 points. The run defense allows 112.5 yards per game, which is the part of the matchup I like most. If the Bobcats can limit early-down rushing gains, Northern Arizona will have to sustain more drives through the air.

That is not the same as dismissing the Lumberjacks’ passing game. Ty Pennington threw for 311 yards and two touchdowns at Utah Tech, and NAU finished with 495 yards. The visitors have enough offense to punish a sloppy start.

Still, Montana State has protected the ball with only three turnovers through four games. Keeping that up would deny Northern Arizona the short fields that could make this a much tighter contest. I expect the Bobcats to win, with their ability to avoid giveaways deciding whether they cover the larger margin.

An 18-, 19-, 20- or 21-point Montana State victory would win this contract while losing the cheaper 22-point option. That extra room is why I’m willing to pay 56¢ instead of chasing the bigger payout.