North Texas visits Tulsa at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium on Thursday at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Mean Green enter after a win over FCS opponent Houston Christian, while Tulsa is coming off a loss at Arkansas.

North Texas has built one of the more productive offenses in the FBS, but Tulsa is at home and has enough rushing production to keep the game competitive. The college football odds reflects a narrow contest rather than a clear mismatch.

Below, I’ll break down this game from every angle. Keep reading for my North Texas vs Tulsa prediction, plus props and the latest odds for Thursday Night CFB.

I’m backing North Texas laying 1.5 points. The Mean Green are averaging 39.5 points and 516 total yards per game, with 1,368 passing yards and 696 rushing yards through four outings. Their 54.9% third-down conversion rate, 28-for-51, gives them a strong foundation for sustaining drives.

Tulsa has averaged 23.8 points and 354.8 total yards per game. The Golden Hurricane have 726 rushing yards and 693 passing yards, but their 27.3% third-down conversion rate, 15-for-55, is a meaningful concern when trying to keep pace with North Texas.

Tulsa has also scored on four of seven red-zone trips. North Texas has scored on 19 of 21 red-zone trips, a 90.5% scoring rate including field goals.

Odds from bet365 as of September 30. New users can claim the bet365 bonus code to use on tonight’s game.

The betting market lists North Texas -1.5 at -105, with Tulsa +1.5 at -115. The moneyline is North Texas -115 and Tulsa -105, while the total is 57.5 with both sides at -110. North Texas’ offensive efficiency and superior third-down profile make the short road spread preferable, although Tulsa’s home-field advantage and balanced offense make this a modest, not an aggressive, position.