The UFC 331 main card is rolling at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, and the flyweight title main event is set to walk out around 10:50 pm ET. Joshua Van puts his belt on the line against Alexandre Pantoja, the man he took it from.

Their first meeting barely happened. Pantoja dislocated his elbow in a scramble less than 30 seconds in, handing Van a first-round finish nobody wanted to see that way. Now we get the version that goes rounds.

Here’s my last-minute Van vs Pantoja 2 prediction and prop bets.

I’m backing the champ. Van is 24, throws elite volume, and just proved his grappling has caught up during a five-round war with Tatsuro Taira. Pantoja is 36, coming off nine months out with an elbow injury, and depends on a fast pace that tends to fade with age.

Pantoja will get takedowns here, especially early. The problem is what he does with them. His game runs on chasing back takes rather than heavy ground strikes, and Van’s get-ups are built to shut that down. Against Taira, Van actually out-landed his opponent on the mat despite giving up far more control time.

The projections lean Van too. He lands 8.4 significant strikes per minute to Pantoja’s 4.4, connects at a 57% clip, and his output climbs deep into fights while Pantoja’s stays flat. Add 75% takedown defense and the picture is a champion built to win the exchanges that decide close rounds.

Van should stuff enough early shots, drag Pantoja into deep water, and pull away on the feet as the fight wears on. A late finish is on the table given his pace, but the cleaner read is a clear decision on the scorecards.

If you’re on a Van decision, the volume props pay you more for the same script. Van lands 8.4 significant strikes per minute to Pantoja’s 4.4, and his output climbs as fights go long. Over 25 minutes against a fighter who eats shots on the way in, the strikes pile up fast.