The octagon returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, with the main event starting at 9:20 PM ET.

Raul Rosas Jr vs. Raoni Barcelos is the five-round main event. I have analyzed the board to bring you my favorite UFC Vegas 121 main card predictions, picks and odds, plus my best bets and long-shot plays, headlined by Rosas vs Barcelos.

Odds as of fight week at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday.

The heavy juice on the Perez vs. Dumont distance prop suggests a grinding affair, with the yes side sitting at -455. Meanwhile, the Hernandez vs. Dumas fight is heavily favored to end early at -1000 on the no.

Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos is the closest fight on the board at -161 and +135, and the distance prop there is nearly a coin flip. Osmanli at -303 is the heaviest moneyline favorite on the card.

Prop bettors have another angle on this card beyond the sportsbook board. Rosas and Barcelos both have grappling stat lines that price well on the best DFS apps , and a PrizePicks promo code gets you started on significant strikes and takedown totals.

I expect a competitive grappling fight that reaches the championship rounds. Rosas has never been finished, while Barcelos has only been finished twice in 27 fights, which gives me a strong durability base for the over.

Rosas showed how difficult he is to keep off the mat against Rob Font, landing 16 takedowns on 18 attempts with 10:05 of control time. That performance also showed the likely shape of this fight, with Rosas winning extended scrambles instead of needing a clean striking finish.