Of the 14 remaining games in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, ten of them feature spreads of 3.5 or less. With 3 (and 7) being a key number in spread betting, I like to tease these spreads to get through the key number and dramatically improve the probability of the bet winning. But when teasing through those numbers, you do sacrifice significant payout. This is why I like to parlay 2-3 teased spreads to get back to near-even odds.

After reviewing all the spreads this week and running the matchups through all of the advanced metrics I trust most, there are two games that stand out as being the optimal ATS picks to be teased for Week 5.

I’m just parlaying two teams in this week’s NFL teaser, as the best third choice comes with a big red flag – the Jaguars are a regression candidate due to their positive turnover margin and negative net yards per play. I do not like forcing plays for the simple purpose of chasing a bigger payout.

If you want to play this parlay at Kalshi as a combo, you will have to take slightly different spreads, as they do not offer every alternate spread. I’d be comfortable taking both at +7.5 as well. If you’re not trading at Kalshi yet, you can claim our signup promo now !

I dive into why these are the two best ATS picks to tease below.

There are six advanced metrics I consider when making my picks against the spread. Five of them compare the two teams, while the other one is a potential red flag for either team. The Colts hold the advantage in four of the five comparison stats, and the Steelers are showing a slightly raised red flag with the sixth.

Two of Indianapolis’ advantages cross significant thresholds:

I look for teams who clear a +6% threshold with the former, and the Colts just cross it, but I only look for a +15% threshold with the latter, and the Colts absolutely crush that.