Every NFL Sunday, the betting market misprices specific matchups, creating a mathematical edge for bettors willing to fade the public. The 14-game slate for Week 6 features several massive mismatches. The Arizona Cardinals headline the extremes as daunting +575 moneyline underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams, while the Los Angeles Chargers (+380) and Washington Commanders (+340) face similarly steep odds. None of those three make my top NFL underdog picks for Week 6, though.

Finding +EV upset picks requires weighing situational advantages, head coaching mismatches, and current-season performance metrics.

SBD’s upset prediction model uses nine-signal weighted scale to identify matchups where oddsmakers missed the mark. By evaluating situational advantages, head coach pedigree, and current-season metrics, the model pinpoints underdogs with realistic paths to an outright victory.

Here are the three underdogs SBD’s model has identified with the highest probability of pulling off an outright upset this Sunday.

After a third straight 2-1 week, my 2026 upset picks have clawed out of the massive hole they were in after a 1-5 start to the season.

With the Bills and 49ers both cashing in Week 5 (and the Chargers narrowly missing after blowing a fourth quarter-lead to Denver), my upset picks are now 7-8 SU and +1.15 units on one-unit wagers.

The New York Giants trigger five of the nine upset signals (2, 3, 4, 7, 8), anchored by a severe coaching mismatch. John Harbaugh brings a .610 career win percentage across 322 games, dwarfing New Orleans Saints coach Kellen Moore’s .318 mark over 22 games. New York holds the current-season win percentage edge (.700 to .200). On the ground, the Giants average 109.0 rushing yards per game with a +0.20 turnover margin, outpacing the Saints’ 81.8 rushing yards and -1.20 turnover margin. Defensively, New York allows 127.6 rushing yards per game versus 148.8 for New Orleans.

However, New York misses the highly predictive divisional signal and lacks a head-to-head coaching advantage, as Harbaugh and Moore have no prior matchup. For the outright upset to land, the Giants must control the clock on the ground and force the Saints’ offense into multiple turnovers.