Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season delivers a slate packed with critical matchups. The action kicks off on Thursday, September 24, with the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Green Bay Packers on TNF and concludes with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting the Caleb Williams-less Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

Early betting action has already impacted the opening NFL Week 3 odds. In the totals market, Titans vs Giants plummeted from 43.5 to 40.5 after Jaxson Dart got injured on MNF, while Seahawks/Commanders fell from 41.5 to 39.5 due to Jayden Daniels dislocating his elbow. Vikings/Buccaneers also dropped from 44.5 to 42.5.

After running each game through SBD’s prediction model, I now have the top over/under bet for all 16 games. The table below summarizes the picks. Under the table, each pick is explained in more detail.

These prices represent the best-available NFL odds at the time of publication .

My over/under picks went 10–6 in Week 1 (+3.091 units on one-unit wagers). I did not post Week 2 picks.

Backing the Under 44.5 in Green Bay aligns with key situational and environmental trends. Short-week Thursday night games between outdoor hosts and visiting dome teams historically produce low-possession slogs, as compressed preparation favors defenses over complex offensive schemes.

Since 2024, the Packers have yielded just 17.3 points per game at Lambeau Field. That home baseline matches up well against an Atlanta offense that has failed to record a single red zone possession this season, averaging 8.0 points per game with an anemic 23.1 percent third-down rate.

With Green Bay operating at a deliberate pace and converting only 19.0 percent of third downs, Matt LaFleur will likely deploy a ground-control script to shorten possessions and bleed the clock.