Navy (1-1) visits UAB (1-2) on Friday, September 25, with both teams trying to rebound from a loss. Kickoff at Protective Stadium in Birmingham is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Midshipmen are 1-1 after losing 38-30 at FAU on September 12, followed by a bye. UAB dropped to 1-2 with a 21-14 loss at Louisiana last Saturday.

Navy’s ground game is the obvious challenge for the Blazers, but I’m also watching whether UAB can keep its defense off the field. Here’s my Navy vs UAB prediction and the spread and total I prefer.

I’m taking the points with UAB. Navy deserves to be favored, but its commitment to the run gives the Blazers a chance to stay within one score if they can avoid handing over short fields. This pick wins if UAB wins outright or loses by six points or fewer.

Navy entered the season as one of the Group of Six contenders for a CFP spot. After a throttling of Towson, the Midshipmen went to Boca Raton as favorites before losing by 8 to FAU. At one point, Navy trailed 38-7 in one of the most shocking scorelines of the season. Navy did score three touchdowns in the last 16 minutes (and score a safety) to make the final score look competitive, but it really was not.

The biggest concern is quarterback Braxton Woodson. He is averaging 148 rushing yards with four rushing touchdowns through Navy’s first two games. As a team, the Midshipmen have averaged 376 rushing yards and 6.9 yards per carry, so UAB cannot afford repeated missed assignments. Only Army has out rushed Navy this season, and the Midshipmen are sixth in the country in yards per rush.

UAB does not have a particularly great rushing defense – the Blazers have allowed the 15th-most rushing yards per game (192.0) – but some of that damage came in a win over Louisiana-Monroe (201 yards).

There was something to build on in the Blazers’ latest loss: they held Louisiana scoreless after halftime. That does not erase the 225 rushing yards they allowed, but it gives me more reason to take UAB with a cushion than to ask the home team to win outright.