No. 19 Missouri visits No. 24 Mississippi State on Saturday, September 26, with both teams looking to turn a 3-0 start into an early SEC statement. The Tigers are opening conference play, while the Bulldogs already have a road win in the league.

Mississippi State has been the more productive offense, but Missouri has found other ways to win. Turnovers and a punt-return touchdown helped the Tigers get past Troy last week, making ball security a big part of this matchup.

Kickoff is at 7:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network. My Missouri vs Mississippi State prediction starts with the Bulldogs’ scoring upside, followed by the market prices and the biggest reason this could stay close.

I’m backing Mississippi State to win by at least six. The Bulldogs have shown they can put points on the board on the road; now they get to play this one in Starkville. Their 41-34 comeback at South Carolina is the strongest result on either team’s early schedule.

Mississippi State trailed 16-0 in that game before recovering. That matters to me more than simply piling up points against an overmatched opener: the Bulldogs have already had to respond when an SEC road game went badly.

Quarterback Kamario Taylor has accounted for 1,010 yards of offense and 12 touchdowns through three games. Missouri cannot focus only on defending the pass, either, with Fluff Bothwell providing a productive rushing option alongside him.

The concern is that it gives Missouri extra possessions. The Tigers turned both of Troy’s turnovers into touchdowns last week. If Mississippi State protects the ball, I prefer its chances of building the touchdown-sized margin this pick needs.

At 52¢, a winning Yes contract returns $1, leaving 48¢ in profit before fees. A five-point Bulldogs win would still lose, so I’m backing more than the home team simply finishing ahead.