As the college football season moves forward, I am isolating the late-night Oct. 10 slate for actionable sports betting picks . I am focusing on net yards-per-play (YPP), turnover margins and situational trends rather than broad narratives.

I am also reviewing prediction markets alongside traditional sportsbook analysis. The prices below are Kalshi buy prices from Oct. 9, listed in cents as implied probabilities; for example, 53¢ is approximately a 53% chance, or about -113 American moneyline odds. Here is my card.

For my Kansas at Utah ATS prediction, I am backing the undefeated Utah Utes (4-0) because their profile combines a dominant +3.33 net YPP margin with a defense allowing an elite 3.92 YPP and just 10.3 points per game. The 2-2 Kansas Jayhawks have also struggled with ball security, carrying a -4 turnover differential fueled by seven giveaways. Utah’s +5 turnover margin gives the home team a notable advantage in possession and field position.

The 48-cent price is roughly equivalent to +108 odds, but the matchup still requires Utah to handle a substantial spread. Kansas yielded 38 points in a loss to Missouri and relies heavily on a passing attack that could face consistent pressure from Utah’s front. I expect the Utes to lean on their ground game and defensive pressure, while Kansas must avoid the mistakes that could turn a competitive start into a larger deficit. The spread therefore hinges on whether Utah’s efficiency creates separation before Kansas can settle into its passing game.

For my Boise State at Fresno State ATS prediction, I see value in the home underdog. The No. 23 Boise State Broncos (4-1) bring a high-octane offense averaging 34.4 points, but their defense has allowed 6.80 YPP and surrendered 500-plus total yards twice this season. That creates a path for Fresno State to stay within the number even if Boise State produces its usual offensive stretches.

The Fresno State Bulldogs (4-1) counter with a defense that has forced 11 takeaways and produced a +8 turnover differential. During their four-game win streak, the Bulldogs have held opponents to 10.8 points per contest. A 6.5-point cushion at home is useful in a game where Fresno State’s defensive discipline can limit extra possessions and keep Boise State from separating. The key matchup is whether the Broncos’ efficiency on offense outweighs the Bulldogs’ advantage in takeaways and recent scoring defense. That makes possession value central to this ATS prediction: Fresno State does not need to outscore Boise State in every phase, but it must prevent the Broncos from turning a few explosive drives into a decisive margin.

For my Hawaii at Arizona State ATS prediction, I am taking the points with the 1-4 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Covering more than 20 points with the 2-2 Arizona State Sun Devils depends on how the home team manages the closing stages: Arizona State has been outscored 44-10 in the final frame and allows 31.8 points per game overall. Those numbers leave room for Hawaii to remain competitive late, even if Arizona State controls much of the matchup.

Hawaii showed offensive signs of life in a recent 20-16 loss to San Jose State, producing 437 total yards. Quarterback Micah Alejado has compiled 800 passing yards and four passing touchdowns entirely in the second half this season, a split that supports the possibility of late scoring. Arizona State’s late-game results and Hawaii’s ability to move the ball should keep the underdog live against the large spread. The path is straightforward: Hawaii needs enough sustained offense to make Arizona State’s late-game profile relevant, rather than allowing the favorite to build an insurmountable lead early.