Texas has already survived one close test against Ohio State. Now the Longhorns leave Austin for the first time this season, facing a 3-0 Tennessee team at Neyland Stadium this afternoon.

The Volunteers have leaned on their running game through three wins, but Texas just held consecutive opponents below 100 rushing yards. That matchup matters more to me than either team’s early scoring average.

My final Texas vs Tennessee prediction starts with the spread, followed by the latest injury report and odds. I’ll also explain how the rushing matchup affects my secondary total lean.

I’m sticking with Tennessee to cover, consistent with my early prediction. The Volunteers have rushed for 896 yards through three games, including 299 in their 45-24 road win over Georgia Tech. That gives them a way to sustain drives without asking Faizon Brandon to carry the entire offense.

Brandon has six touchdown passes without an interception through those three games. He has also contributed 137 rushing yards and three scores. Texas has to account for his legs even when it handles Tennessee’s running backs, which can make third down less predictable.

The obvious concern is the jump in competition. Texas is a top National Championship odds contender and held Ohio State to 94 rushing yards and UTSA to 72. I’m not expecting Tennessee to repeat its early rushing averages against this defense. If the Volunteers repeatedly face third-and-long, this pick gets uncomfortable quickly.

Still, the extra points give Tennessee room to lose a competitive game and cover. I prefer that cushion to needing an outright upset. Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 before handling UTSA 30-6; it has shown it can win a tight game, but winning and covering this number are different asks.

My original lean was Tennessee +4.5. With BetMGM now offering +5.5, I’m keeping the same side at the better spread. For readers comparing available platforms locally, our Texas prediction markets page covers another way to follow the Longhorns.