#7 Alabama and #16 Mississippi State put their 4-0 records on the line this Saturday, at Davis Wade Stadium. The SEC matchup kicks off at noon ET on ABC, with both offenses coming off productive weekends.

The Crimson Tide rolled past South Carolina 49-18 last weekend, while the Bulldogs held off Missouri 31-24. Mississippi State now gets a chance to follow that win with a much bigger statement at home.

Below, I break down my early Alabama vs Mississippi State prediction, the latest spread and my best bet for this matchup.

I like Alabama laying fewer than seven points. The National Championship odds contender boasts an offense averaging 48 points and 471.5 yards per game, but the defensive numbers are what separate these teams for me. The Tide have allowed 93.8 rushing yards per game and forced nine turnovers through four games.

Keelon Russell threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns without an interception against South Carolina. That gives Alabama a quarterback playing with confidence, backed by a defense capable of creating a short field. A repeat of that combination would put plenty of pressure on the Bulldogs to keep answering.

Mississippi State can certainly move the ball. Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns against Missouri, and the Bulldogs average 533.3 yards per game. However, their defense has surrendered 249 passing yards per game, giving Russell an opening to continue his strong start.

My concern with the favorite is Taylor keeping this competitive deep into the second half. Still, I prefer Alabama’s balance and ability to force mistakes. At -6, a seven-point win covers; I would reassess the price if the spread reaches a full touchdown. Check out the best college football betting apps to make sure you grab the most favorable odds.

Odds from BetMGM as of September 27. Compare the latest college football odds before kickoff.