The Appalachian State Mountaineers (3-2, 0-1 Sun Belt) are searching for a prime bounce-back spot after a frustrating 10-3 loss to the Old Dominion Monarchs. They hit the road to take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (2-4, 1-1 Sun Belt), who secured a hard-fought 27-21 road victory over the Marshall Thundering Herd. Kickoff is set for Friday, Oct. 16 at 8 p.m. ET at Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC, on ESPN2.

Neither team is commanding College Football Playoff futures action right now, but this clash presents a fantastic puzzle for traders using prediction market apps . Coastal Carolina wants to defend its home turf and build on last week’s win, while App State aims to prove its offensive baseline is much higher than what it showed last week.

Below, I break down where the true value in this Sun Belt East affair lies before you lock in your Friday night portfolio.

The statistics point to the visiting Mountaineers. App State averages 28.4 points per game while allowing just 19.8, and its defense is holding opponents to 4.76 yards per play.

Coastal Carolina has struggled defensively, allowing 403.3 total yards and 189.7 rushing yards per game at 6.21 yards per play. That plays right into the hands of App State running back Jaquari Lewis, who has 261 rushing yards and four touchdowns through five games.

The loss to Old Dominion looks like an outlier. Malachi Singleton completed just 5 of 23 passes that day, but he threw for 317 yards at NC State and 331 yards against Charlotte in the two games before it. Sam Pickett III (21 catches, 333 yards, three touchdowns) gives him a reliable target.

Coastal leaned heavily on the ground at Marshall, rushing for 235 yards while Deuce Bailey completed 8 of 18 passes for 73 yards. Bailey is completing 53.8% of his throws this season, which makes it tough for the Chanticleers to keep pace if App State builds an early lead.

At 53¢, App State carries a 53% implied probability for the more complete team on both sides of the ball. My App State vs Coastal Carolina prediction is the Mountaineers to win outright .