Four weeks into the 2026 NFL season, the championship futures market has already experienced seismic shifts, punctuated by the Los Angeles Chargers’ catastrophic freefall after an 0-4 start. Their Super Bowl price has faded from +5000 after Week 2 to +15000 after Week 4. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams remain the favorites at +650, despite a pedestrian 2-2 record.

Behind the Rams, the board is shuffling rapidly as early-season form dictates pricing.

The table below sets out the current Super Bowl odds and how they have moved over the last fortnight. Under the table, find analysis of the biggest risers and fallers, plus my best Super Bowl value pick heading into Week 5 based on the underlying metrics.

Six teams are priced at +900 or shorter in the current post-Week 4 market: the Rams (+650), Bills (+700), 49ers (+850), and Ravens, Seahawks, and Chiefs (all +900). In the winning-conference market, the NFC is currently favored at -115, narrowly ahead of the AFC at -105..

San Francisco 49ers The 49ers’ odds shortened from +1100 after Week 2 to +850 after Week 4. They are 4-0, riding a four-game winning streak and sitting atop the NFC West. Their on-field dominance is reflected in 122 points scored and 64 allowed for a +58 point differential. San Francisco has also covered in 75.0% of matchups (3-1 ATS).

Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville’s price shortened from +2200 after Week 2 to +1400 after Week 4. The Jaguars hold a 3-1 record and a two-game winning streak, securing the number one spot in the AFC South. The defense has surrendered 53 points through four games, contributing to a +51 point differential. They are 3-1 ATS.

Minnesota Vikings The Vikings moved from +3000 after Week 2 to +2500 after Week 4. They remain perfect at 4-0 and sit atop the NFC standings. Minnesota has allowed 51 points, with a +35 point differential, and has a 3-1 ATS record.

Los Angeles Chargers The Chargers’ odds lengthened from +5000 after Week 2 to +15000 after Week 4. Los Angeles is 0-4, has lost four straight games, and sits at the bottom of the AFC West. Their point differential is -39, and they have failed to cover in any rated matchups (0-3 ATS).