The undefeated Buffalo Bills (3-0 SU, 2-0 home) welcome the New England Patriots (1-2 SU, 0-2 away) to Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, for an AFC East divisional matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for today at 1:00 PM ET, with CBS providing the national broadcast.

Buffalo enters this contest as a heavy home favorite, riding a three-game win streak and boasting an explosive offense that averages 33.7 points per game.

New England arrives as a significant road underdog desperate to keep its season from spiraling after a recent blowout defeat. While the Patriots still maintain a path to the playoffs, their chances rely heavily on pulling off big upsets against superior divisional foes. Elite quarterback Josh Allen commands a Buffalo unit that converts an outstanding 75.0% of its red-zone trips, posing a massive challenge for a New England defense missing key starters.

This preview breaks down the matchup from a sports betting perspective, analyzing the latest statistical trends and public money splits to uncover value on the board.

Odds as of October 2, 2026, at 2:05 PM ET from BetMGM. Claim your BetMGM promo now .

Oddsmakers expect Buffalo to come away with a victory, attaching a steep -333 price to the Bills on the moneyline. When removing the sportsbook’s vig to calculate normalized probabilities, Buffalo holds a substantial 74.0% true probability of winning the game outright. New England’s vig-free win probability sits at 26.0%.

Bettors tracking NFL odds will note that a $10 wager on the heavily favored Bills yields a total payout of $13.00, resulting in a $3.00 profit. Placing that same $10 bet on the underdog Patriots returns a much larger payout of $37.00 ($27.00 in profit) should they pull off the upset.

Looking at how the lines have moved since opening, the spread has seen a slight shift. Buffalo opened as a full 7-point favorite, but early betting action pushed the number down to -6.5. The game’s total has held steady, remaining exactly where it opened at 48.5 points.