The unbeaten USC Trojans host the Oregon Ducks at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday, September 26. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, with Oregon laying less than a field goal on the road.

USC improved to 4-0 with a 42-35 win over Rutgers, while Oregon moved to 2-1 by beating Portland State 84-0. The Ducks’ response to their loss at Oklahoma State was emphatic and historic, but this is a much tougher assignment.

My Oregon vs USC prediction weighs the Trojans’ ability to extend drives against the Ducks’ efficient passing game. Here’s my early pick, followed by the odds and key matchup numbers.

I like USC getting points at home. The Trojans have converted 30 of 46 third downs this season, giving them a reliable way to sustain possessions. That matters against an Oregon offense capable of scoring quickly.

Jayden Maiava threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns against Rutgers, and King Miller added 102 rushing yards. That balance gives USC options if Oregon takes away the first read or forces the Trojans into longer drives.

I am putting less weight on Oregon’s 84-point performance against an FCS opponent. The Ducks scored 34 against Boise State and 31 in their loss at Oklahoma State. Those games offer a more useful comparison for what USC needs to match offensively.

There is still a clear risk to backing the Trojans: their defense allowed Rutgers 460 yards and 35 points. Dante Moore can exploit those openings. He completed 19 of 23 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns against Portland State, so I don’t expect USC to shut Oregon down.

Instead, I expect a close game where USC’s offense keeps it within one possession throughout. The home underdog is my preferred spread bet, and my projected score also puts the game above the early total of 62.5.