No. 4 Ole Miss heads to Gainesville to face No. 21 Florida on Saturday, September 26. Both teams are 3-0 after winning their SEC openers, and kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Rebels just beat LSU 32-24, while the Gators survived a 44-39 road game at Auburn. Those wins put two very different offenses into this matchup: Ole Miss leans heavily on its passing game, while Florida has produced through the air and on the ground.

My Ole Miss vs Florida prediction looks at that balance, the pass rush and the early win prices on Kalshi. Here’s how I’m approaching the game before either team faces its next SEC test.

I’m picking Florida at home. The most convincing matchup is Jadan Baugh against an Ole Miss defense allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Baugh has 458 yards and eight rushing touchdowns through three games, including 162 yards and three scores in the win at Auburn.

That production gives Florida a way to keep its offense moving without asking Aaron Philo to win every series with his arm. Philo has completed 47 of 64 passes for 721 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. The Gators can make the Rebels defend more than one part of the field.

Florida’s seven sacks against Auburn also matter here. Ole Miss managed only 63 rushing yards against LSU, leaving Trinidad Chambliss to do much of the work through the air. If that pattern repeats, Florida has an opportunity to pressure him on longer passing downs.

That is an opportunity, not a guarantee. Ole Miss has allowed only three sacks all season, and Chambliss just threw for 363 yards against LSU. He is the biggest reason to be cautious about backing Florida: the Rebels can stay in the game even if their rushing attack struggles.

I still prefer the Gators’ balance in their own stadium. Florida allowed 39 points at Auburn, so I’m not treating its defense as a finished product. This is a pick to win outright, without adding a spread requirement to a matchup that could remain close into the fourth quarter.