West Virginia hosts Oklahoma State at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 26, with a chance to keep its unbeaten start intact. The Cowboys arrive in Morgantown at 2-1 after a 59-0 win over Murray State.

The quarterbacks give this one two very different looks. Drew Mestemaker threw five touchdown passes last week, while Michael Hawkins Jr. accounted for five touchdowns against Virginia, including three on the ground.

My Oklahoma State vs West Virginia prediction comes down to that contrast and the small margin the spread needs. Below are my picks, the latest Kalshi prices and the trends worth weighing before kickoff.

I am backing West Virginia to win by at least two. The Mountaineers have run on 78.2% of their plays this season, averaging 53.7 rushing attempts per game. That gives them a way to build drives without asking Hawkins to win a passing contest with Mestemaker.

Hawkins has 322 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and five passing touchdowns through three games. Cam Cook adds another 317 yards on the ground. Cook carried 30 times for 123 yards against Virginia, which shows West Virginia will keep feeding its backs rather than drop the run when a game stays close.

The concern is how quickly Oklahoma State can score. Mestemaker completed 20 of 22 passes for 324 yards and five touchdowns against Murray State. Justin Bowick had 178 receiving yards, giving the Cowboys a big-play threat that West Virginia cannot ignore while defending the run.

I am not treating a lopsided win over Murray State as proof the Cowboys will look the same in a conference road game. Oklahoma State has lost nine straight Big 12 road games. That supports a small home-side pick, though coaching and roster changes mean I would not lean on the whole streak.

The over is my secondary play. Both quarterbacks can find the end zone in more than one way, and West Virginia’s run-first approach does not automatically mean a low score. Hawkins’ legs give the Mountaineers another option near the goal line, and the Cowboys have already shown how fast their passing game can move.