Every Sunday, the NFL betting market inevitably misprices a few matchups, presenting lucrative opportunities for bettors willing to fade the public. The Week 4 slate features a full 16 games and a wide spectrum of moneylines. While it might be tempting to chase the week’s longest shots – like the Tennessee Titans (0-3) at +525 against the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) or the Miami Dolphins (0-3) at +475 against the Minnesota Vikings (3-0) – finding consistent value requires hunting for underdogs with the most realistic paths to winning outright.

Rather than throwing darts at massive double-digit spreads, the focus is elsewhere this week because that’s where the tried-and-test upset indicators are pointing.

These predictions are generated by a nine-signal weighted underdog model evaluating coaching mismatches, early-season form, and situational spots like divisional showdowns.

After an ugly first two weeks, the upset picks got on track in Week 3, hitting on two of three predictions: Raiders (+156) over Saints, and Steelers (+170) over Bengals. Only Dallas (+163 vs Baltimore) lost, on a last-second field goal no less.

For the season, my upset picks are now 3-5 SU and -2.26 units on one-unit wagers.

The Philadelphia Eagles anchor this week’s upset board as home underdogs at Lincoln Financial Field, firing on several core signals against Los Angeles.

Nick Sirianni owns one of the highest career winning percentages in modern NFL history at .684 (67–30), besting Sean McVay’s mark of .613 (103–65). More importantly, Sirianni has completely solved McVay head-to-head, boasting a perfect 4-0 all-time record against him—including a 28–22 playoff victory in the 2024 NFC Divisional round and a 33–26 triumph in 2025. Across those four meetings, Philly has averaged 30.3 points and 211.0 rushing yards per game.

Defensively, the Eagles have fortified the trenches, allowing just 93.7 rushing yards per game compared to the Rams’ 101.3 yards allowed.