Week 3 doesn’t kick off until Thursday, September 25, but prediction markets have already set their prices for all 16 games – and several of them are dead wrong.

I have cross-referenced every Polymarket and Kalshi moneyline contract against performance data through two weeks: point differentials, scoring output, home/road splits, and strength of schedule. The result is a card built around genuine +EV opportunities, including multiple underdogs that the market is drastically undervaluing.

Below, I will run down the top SU plays of the week in order of confidence level.

Las Vegas enters Week 3 backed by complete complementary football, posting a league-best +26 point differential while showcasing a disruptive front seven that has generated 8 sacks. New Orleans has shown critical vulnerability along the offensive line, already conceding 8 sacks through two games and surrendering 136.5 rushing yards per contest defensively.

The Raiders’ offensive balance directly targets the Saints’ inability to set the edge, and New Orleans faces a tight turnaround after a physical road matchup in Baltimore. Pricing the undefeated Raiders at just 38.5¢ overweights home venue bias while overlooking decisive trench advantages. With the true line closer to a coin flip, the Raiders represent a premium positive expected value buy.

Denver at 43¢ as a home underdog offers exceptional closing equity. Mile High remains one of the NFL’s premier home environments, backed by a Broncos defense that finished as a top-two scoring unit in 2025 by allowing only 18.3 points per game and leading the league with 68 sacks. That defensive baseline carries over into 2026, where Denver is holding opponents to just 172.5 passing yards per game.

The Rams face a grueling turnaround, traveling on short rest following a Monday Night Football appearance, a split where visiting West Coast offenses historically struggle with conditioning and execution in the second half. Los Angeles is heavily taxed in pass protection against Denver’s disciplined blitz packages. At a 43¢ entry point, the market is overpaying for the Rams’ road favorite status.

Dallas is vastly undervalued at 40.5¢ in their home building. AT\&T Stadium continues to provide an elite scoring venue for Dallas, where they put up 37 points in their opener and have maintained an explosive 27.7 points per game home average across the past two seasons. Baltimore’s pass defense remains vulnerable against spread sets, following a 2025 campaign where they ranked near the bottom of the league by allowing 247.9 passing yards per game.