The final of the ATP Hangzhou Men’s Singles tournament promises an intense clash as Daniil Medvedev takes on Andrey Rublev at Center Court in China. Scheduled for Tuesday morning, at 7:30 AM ET, this title match features world No. 6 Medvedev entering as the favorite against the 24th-ranked Rublev. With the Hangzhou crown on the line, bettors will be watching closely to see if the favorite can validate his ranking dominance and lopsided head-to-head advantage.

Below, I’ll break down this match from every angle. Keep reading for my Medvedev vs Rublev best bets, picks and odds for the Hangzhou Final.

Odds from bet365 as of 12:50 pm ET, Sep 28. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on the Medvedev vs Rublev match.

Bettors backing the higher-ranked Medvedev will have to lay standard juice on the moneyline or take him to cover the game spread. Those targeting the total will find the market set at 23.5 games, indicating sportsbooks expect a fairly competitive straight-sets match or a potential three-setter to decide the Hangzhou title.

Note that Kalshi offers Rublev to win outright at 33¢, which translates to an implied +203 payout—a significantly better price than the +165 odds at bet365. Before making any wager scan the best prediction market apps to find the top price.

The single most important question for bettors is whether Rublev can crack Medvedev’s notorious baseline defense. Medvedev holds a stark 1,690-point advantage in the ATP singles rankings and an 8-2 career edge in prior meetings. If Rublev cannot hit through that defensive wall—and history says he rarely can—the favorite is heavily positioned to hoist the trophy.

Medvedev has won eight of ten career meetings. Rublev’s only two victories came in back-to-back ATP Finals and Cincinnati campaigns in 2021 and 2022, both requiring three sets.

Every other match has gone squarely to Medvedev, often in dominant fashion. Critically, nine of their ten meetings have been played on hard courts, meaning the surface in Hangzhou lines up perfectly with the rivalry’s existing data set.