Coming off a 55-19 blowout loss to Baylor, the Arizona State Sun Devils (2-2) return home to host the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-4) at Mountain America Stadium. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 10.

Hawaii is also reeling after a 20-16 loss to San Jose State, despite piling up 437 yards of total offense. Neither team is ranked, so this one comes down to which side can stop the slide.

The Hawaii vs Arizona State odds make the Sun Devils a clear home favorite against a Hawaii team making the long trip to the mainland. Here’s how these teams match up and where I see value.

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My Hawaii vs Arizona State prediction is a Sun Devils win. Kalshi has Arizona State at 92¢, roughly -1150 before fees. ASU has won 12 of its 15 home games since the start of 2024, while Hawaii has lost 18 straight road games against power-conference opponents. Its last such win came at Washington State in 2009.

Hawaii is also built to play from behind. The Rainbow Warriors throw on 67.4% of their snaps, and quarterback Micah Alejado has 800 of his 1,360 passing yards and all four of his touchdown passes after halftime. That points to an offense that struggles to get going early.

Arizona State quarterback Cutter Boley has been a tale of two halves. He has 725 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in first halves, but just 315 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions after the break. Add in ASU being outscored 44-10 in fourth quarters this season, and the likely script is an early Sun Devils lead with Hawaii chasing late.

That script should mean plenty of possessions. The Hawaii vs Arizona State total sits at 50.5 on Kalshi, with the Over priced at 52¢, roughly -108 before fees. Arizona State is allowing 31.8 points per game, and Hawaii’s late-game passing gives this Over a second path to cash.