Texas A&M and LSU have little time to dwell on last week. The Aggies lost 31-21 to Kentucky, while the Tigers fell 32-24 at Ole Miss, leaving both teams 2-1 and looking for their first SEC win.

The scene shifts to Tiger Stadium tonight, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. It is Texas A&M’s first road game of the season and another early test for Lane Kiffin’s LSU offense.

My final Texas A&M vs LSU prediction centers on the spread and a third-down matchup that could keep this closer than the moneyline suggests. Here are my best bets, updated odds and the recent series results worth considering.

I’m taking the points with Texas A&M. The Aggies do not need to win in Baton Rouge to cash this ticket, and their third-down defense offers a specific reason to believe they can stay in the game. They have allowed just seven conversions in 31 attempts through three weeks.

LSU presents a much tougher test than that number alone suggests. The Tigers are a National Championship odds contender and have converted 28 of 50 third downs, a 56% success rate. This is the matchup I will be watching: if A&M can end a few of those possessions, it can keep LSU from building the sustained pressure a double-digit cover requires.

Marcel Reed also has a successful recent performance against this opponent. In last season’s 49-25 win at LSU, he ran for 108 yards and two touchdowns while adding 202 passing yards and two scores. I’m not expecting a repeat, but his mobility gives the Aggies a way to escape pressure and extend drives.

The concern is the setting. A first road start of the season in Baton Rouge is a difficult assignment, particularly after the Kentucky loss. A&M needs to avoid putting itself behind the chains and asking Reed to rescue every series. I’m taking +10, rather than treating this as an outright upset prediction.

BetMGM prices checked September 25. Eligible new customers can review the BetMGM promo code before making their selections.