Baylor visits Arizona State tonight, in a late-night Big 12 matchup at Mountain America Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, giving the Sun Devils a valuable home-field setting against a Bears team that has started 3-1.

Arizona State enters at 2-1 after beating Kansas 24-17 in its most recent game. That result came at a neutral site. Baylor, meanwhile, has won three straight, but its overall turnover margin is minus-1 .

I will use the market at college football betting apps as a starting point, then weigh the matchup-specific numbers below. These are my spread and total picks plays, followed by the matchup trends behind them.

I am laying the points with Arizona State because the home setting should help in a game projected to be decided by a small number of possessions. The spread requires the Sun Devils to win by at least four points, to cover. That is a manageable margin if Arizona State avoids giveaways and converts enough of its red-zone opportunities.

The Under is my stronger matchup lean. Baylor has produced more yardage against FBS opponents, but Arizona State’s offense has been less explosive in that sample. A lower-possession game also makes three-and-outs, field position and special teams more influential. I do not need either offense to collapse for the Under to cash, as a methodical game in the low-to-mid 20s for the winner fits the number.

I am using the available college football odds as the reference market for this matchup. Here are the current prices:

At -180, Arizona State is priced as the more likely winner, but the moneyline carries a larger cost than the spread. I prefer -3.5 because my projection is for the Sun Devils to win a close contest by four or more. Baylor +3.5 remains attractive for bettors who believe its FBS yardage edge will translate into sustained drives, while the total gives me the cleaner way to express a slower-game expectation.

Recent results provide useful context for my picks. Baylor is 3-1 overall and has won three consecutive games. That recent form makes the Bears a credible road underdog, particularly if they can keep the game balanced and prevent Arizona State from creating short fields.