San Jose State heads to the islands to close out Saturday’s card against Hawaii. Kickoff is midnight ET on Sunday, October 4, which is 9 p.m. Saturday on the West Coast and 6 p.m. local at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.

The Spartans are 2-2 coming out of a late September bye and still stinging from a 26-10 loss to Fresno State. Hawaii is 1-3 overall and 0-2 in Mountain West play after a 27-10 loss at Wyoming, so the Rainbow Warriors are already chasing in the conference.

Neither offense has done much so far, and that is where my attention goes. Here is my San Jose State vs Hawaii prediction, the current numbers and the stats behind both sides.

I am on the Under here. Both offenses have struggled against FBS opponents, which gives me a reason to lean below a total of 50.5.

Hawaii is averaging 18.0 points a game across four games, all of them against FBS opponents. In its two home games the Rainbow Warriors have scored 17.5 and allowed 20.0, though two games is a thin sample to build anything on. The bigger issue is the run game at 83.3 rushing yards per game, which puts most of the load on Micah Alejado’s arm.

San Jose State is a little better at 21.0 points a game, and that figure covers only its three games against FBS teams. Luke Weaver has thrown five interceptions this season. That has hurt drives, although turnovers can also give the opponent short fields and work against an under.

The risk is plain enough: neither defense is good. San Jose State allows 29.7 points a game, Hawaii allows 26.0 and 402.5 total yards, and last year’s meeting finished 45-38. If both offenses find something early, this number goes fast.

The current college football odds have Hawaii as a -150 home favorite, which carries an implied probability of 60%. San Jose State at +125 implies 44.4%. Those two add up to more than 100%, and that overlap is the book’s margin rather than a read on either team’s actual chances.