The 2026/27 UEFA Nations League gets underway for Portugal and Wales on September 24, with Portugal hosting Wales at 2:45 p.m. ET. Portugal enter the match as heavy favorites under new manager Jorge Jesus, while Craig Bellamy’s Wales look to open their League A Group A4 campaign with a result on the road.

Wales will be without seven players for the matchup, including Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon, Nathan Broadhead, Rubin Colwill, Karl Darlow, Isaak Davies, and Dylan Lawlor. The absences leave Bellamy with less depth as Wales prepare to face a Portugal squad featuring Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leão, and Francisco Conceição.

Portugal and Wales have met four times, with Portugal winning three and Wales winning once. We’ll examine the head-to-head record, recent form, FIFA rankings, team news, and predicted lineups before breaking down the best betting opportunities for Thursday’s matchup.

Portugal are overwhelming favorites in the current market, with the -456 moneyline implying an 82.0% chance of victory before accounting for the overround. The draw is priced at +614 (14.0%), while Wales are +1567 (6.0%).

After normalizing those implied probabilities to remove the overround, the market gives Portugal an 80.4% chance of winning, compared with 13.7% for a draw and 5.9% for a Wales victory.

Portugal’s strong market position reflects the significant gap between the teams in the FIFA rankings, recent results, and squad depth. The two sides have also met four times previously, with Portugal holding a 3-1 advantage.

Here are my three best bets for this UEFA Nations League fixture:

Portugal have won the two most recent meetings with Wales, beating them 3-0 in 2000 and 2-0 at Euro 2016. Overall, Portugal lead the head-to-head series 3-1, with a 9-4 aggregate goal advantage.