Week 4 of the season has arrived and true contenders are rapidly separating from pretenders. The action kicks off October 1 at 8:15 PM ET with the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) visiting the Cleveland Browns (2-1) where the winner will hold the early lead in the AFC North. The marquee Week 4 matchup resides in the AFC West, where the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) travel to face the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) in a battle of undefeateds.

The slate concludes October 5 at 8:15 PM ET with an NFC South rivalry between the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) and New Orleans Saints (1-2).

A few of the game totals have moved a lot since the opening NFL Week 4 odds were posted on Sunday evening. The O/U for Packers vs Buccaneers opened at 46.5 before market pressure drove that number down a massive seven points to 39.5, almost entirely due to an injury to Tampa QB1 Baker Mayfield.

Another major adjustment took place in Dolphins and Vikings, which 3.5 points from 42.0 to 38.5.

The total for the Falcons/Saints rose two points from 46.5 to 48.5.

I have run all 16 games through SBD’s predictive A.I. model, generating the top O/U pick for each game based on current lines. The table below summarize the picks. Under the table, find the computer’s reasoning for each O/U prediction.

After a sub-par Week 3 , the O/U picks are now just 16–16 overall (-1.482 units on one-unit wagers) this season.

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