One of the biggest stories of the early NFL season is Josh Allen’s stranglehold on the MVP market. The Buffalo Bills quarterback has surged to a commanding +250 in the NFL MVP odds , separating himself from the field after guiding Buffalo to a 2-0 start. Allen is averaging 291 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game with zero interceptions and a blistering 125.8 passer rating plus 92 rushing yards and another four TDs on the ground.

Perennial contenders like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson remain firmly in the mix, while Brock Purdy has emerged as a legitimate threat behind an elite San Francisco offense. Meanwhile, several high-profile names have seen their odds crater. Below, I will break down the full landscape of the race, identifying the biggest risers and fallers.

“Current odds” from FanDuel as of Sep 22. Check out the available Super Bowl betting promos .

Two notable names are absent from the board entirely. Caleb Williams (hamstring) and Jayden Daniels (elbow) are both off the board after suffering injuries in Week 2. Williams, who had been generating early buzz after his bears dropped a 59-burger on Carolina in Week 1, saw his price at prediction market Kalshi crater from 13 cents to 4 cents. Daniels tumbled from 4 cents to 1 cent. Their return timetables will be worth monitoring closely.

The rest of the legitimate contenders sit in the single-digit implied probability range, largely dominated by quarterbacks. Non-quarterbacks like Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and Kenneth Walker III linger further down the board as deep longshots, though the running back presence on this year’s board is notably robust.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+250) Allen has rocketed to the top of the MVP board and it is easy to see why. Through two games, he is averaging 291.0 passing yards per game with 2.5 touchdowns and zero interceptions, producing a 125.8 passer rating. The Bills are a perfect 2-0 with a plus-15 point differential, ranking fifth in the AFC. Allen’s combination of elite efficiency and team success makes him the clear frontrunner.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+900) Purdy has made a significant leap among legitimate MVP contenders. He is exceptionally efficient, completing 80.4 percent of his passes while averaging 246.0 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and just 0.5 interceptions per game. This produces a pristine 125.6 passer rating. The 49ers have secured a flawless 2-0 record with a league-best plus-42 point differential, reinforcing his candidacy.

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints (+3000) The Saints quarterback has been one of the early-season surprises, leading the league with 331.0 passing yards per game through two starts. Shough is completing 68.9 percent of his passes with 2.0 touchdowns and 1.0 interception per game, generating a 95.7 passer rating. New Orleans sits at 1-1, but his volume and production have been impossible to ignore, earning him a spot at +3000.