Louisville looks to continue rolling after a 41-31 win over SMU, while Wake Forest arrives looking to recover from a 33-20 loss to Miami. Both teams are 2-1 heading into Saturday’s noon ET meeting at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.

The Cardinals’ running game was productive last week as Keyjuan Brown tallied 163 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Wake Forest had a very different afternoon on the ground, leaving its passing attack to do most of the work against Miami. UNC transfer Gio Lopez threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns as Jack Foley caught six passes for 118 yards and a score.

My Louisville vs Wake Forest prediction focuses on the total rather than laying a large spread. Below are the reasons for that choice, the Kalshi prices, and a closer look at what each team showed last week.

I’m taking the under. Louisville ran for 265 yards against SMU, giving it a way to move the ball without needing a fast, pass-heavy game. If the Cardinals establish another lead, I expect that rushing attack to remain central to their plan.

I have faith in Lincoln Kienholz, an Ohio State transfer who has a pair of 300-yard games under his belt, but he has generally not been asked to carry the workload. He has yet to throw even 30 passes in a game this season. That said, he has 10 total touchdowns in three games and zero interceptions.

Wake Forest’s rushing production is the other reason I lean this way. The Demon Deacons finished with just 22 net rushing yards against Miami. Their passing game kept them involved, but another one-dimensional afternoon would make sustained drives harder to string together.

Even with the one-dimensional offense, the Demon Deacons were not killed in time of possession, maintaining the ball for over 26 minutes even as Miami ran for over 150 yards.

There is a clear concern on the other side. Louisville allowed SMU 479 total yards, including 257 rushing yards, despite winning. The Cardinals’ offense can also do substantial damage by itself. My under depends on longer possessions and fewer easy drives, not an assumption that Louisville has an elite defense. Louisville does have a potential first-round pick in Clev Lubin though who had 8.5 sacks and five pass deflections last season for the Cardinals.