One of the final game’s on today’s college football slate features Kansas heading to Salt Lake City to face No. 12 Utah. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

My Kansas vs Utah prediction starts with the contrast between Utah’s 4-0 record and Kansas’ 2-2 mark: Utah has paired higher scoring with stronger ball security and defense, while Kansas has generated plenty of yardage but has a negative turnover margin.

Keep reading for my late night CFB best bets on Oct. 10, below.

My Kansas vs. Utah prediction favors the spread over the outright moneyline. Utah has a +5 turnover margin, with seven takeaways and two giveaways. Kansas is at -4 after giving the ball away seven times. I view that difference as especially important because Utah has also allowed only 10.3 points per game.

Utah is averaging 43.3 points per game, and quarterback Devon Dampier has completed 70.3% of his passes while producing a 172.2 passer efficiency rating. He is averaging 224 passing yards per game with nine passing touchdowns. Wayshawn Parker has added balance, averaging 6.56 yards per carry and recording nine total touchdowns, including four receiving and five rushing.

Kansas is averaging 496.8 total yards per game, so I do not expect Utah to face an unproductive offense. However, Kansas’ -4 turnover margin is a meaningful disadvantage against a National Championship odds contender that has consistently protected the ball. I am taking Utah to win by more than 16.5 points rather than paying the 87¢ moneyline price.

I see the most important mismatch in the turnover battle. Kansas has been productive with the ball in terms of yardage, but its seven giveaways have contributed to a -4 margin. Utah’s seven takeaways and only two giveaways have produced a +5 margin. Utah also allows fewer points and rushing yards per game, while Kansas has the slightly higher rushing-yard average on offense.

My second Kansas vs. Utah best bet is Over 50.5 because the teams are combining for 988 total yards per game. Kansas averages 496.8 yards, including 254 rushing and 242.8 passing. Utah averages 491.2 yards, with 225.8 rushing and 265.5 passing.