No. 8 BYU hosts Iowa State at LaVell Edwards Stadium under the Friday night lights. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, with the Cougars looking to build on their 4-0 start.

BYU beat TCU 17-10 last week, while Iowa State won a 45-42 shootout against West Virginia. Those contrasting results set up an interesting test in Provo.

Below are my Iowa State vs BYU prediction, odds and best bet, including the numbers behind the near-double-digit spread.

My Iowa State vs BYU best bet hinges on the clearest statistical edge in drive continuation. The Cougars are converting 57.4% of their third downs, compared with 34.5% for Iowa State. BYU also averages 37.2 points and 415.2 total yards per game, versus 33.6 points and 391.6 yards for the Cyclones.

That does not make Iowa State one-dimensional. Its offense has generated 987 rushing yards and 971 passing yards this season, while its red-zone offense is 16-for-16. Aiden Flora is part of that rushing production, and quarterback Jaylen Raynor leads the passing game. If the Cyclones can reach scoring range consistently, the perfect red-zone mark gives them a way to stay within the number vs a National Championship odds contender.

The counter is BYU’s turnover profile. The Cougars have lost two turnovers and own a +5 differential, while Iowa State has lost five and owns a +2 differential. BYU has also forced six interceptions. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier directs the offense, and his ability to avoid wasted possessions will be important against an Iowa State defense with nine sacks and five fumble recoveries.

My prediction is that BYU’s third-down advantage and home setting produce enough extra possessions to separate after halftime. Iowa State’s efficiency inside the 20 should keep the game competitive, but BYU remains the stronger side in this matchup.

The number is demanding, particularly after BYU’s low-yardage win at TCU, but the matchup is different at home. I expect Iowa State to lean on its balanced offense and Flora’s rushing production while BYU looks to extend drives through Bachmeier and its third-down efficiency.