Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev clash in the ATP Beijing semifinals on October 5 at 7:00 AM ET. This will be the 16th all-time meeting between the pair, but the first in over three years.

The critical question is whether Medvedev’s current hot streak can overcome Djokovic’s historical and deep-statistical advantages. Medvedev has won seven consecutive matches across Hangzhou and Beijing, all in straight sets, while Djokovic has pieced together three wins in Beijing – including a victory over #2 Alexander Zverev – after a rare three-match losing streak.

Below, I will break down my two best bets for Djokovic vs Medvedev.

With two elite hard-court players squaring off in the Beijing semifinals, I see value on the underdog rather than laying a premium with Medvedev. Recent form favors Medvedev, but the broader player-quality indicators and Djokovic’s superior performance in key service and pressure categories support a contrarian position.

Novak Djokovic is my primary betting target at +123. Tennis Abstract’s current Elo ratings place Djokovic at 2,047.2 compared with Medvedev at 1,956.0, while their hard-court Elo ratings also favor Djokovic 1,997.1 to 1,936.4. Those ratings account for opponent quality rather than simply tournament round or official ranking, giving Djokovic a stronger underlying projection than the market price implies.

The 52-week key-stat comparison from Tennis Ratio reinforces that case. Djokovic leads in service games won (86.6% to 84.8%), second-serve points won (55.0% to 48.4%), break points saved (70.8% to 64.4%), tiebreaks won (71.4% to 36.4%) and match efficiency (2.807 to 1.739). Medvedev owns meaningful return advantages, including return games won (27.3% to 19.7%) and first-serve return points won (33.7% to 28.2%) but Djokovic’s serve stability and pressure-point record give him a credible path to victory.

Medvedev’s seven-match winning streak is the strongest argument against the underdog, and his recent Beijing victories have all come in straight sets. Still, Djokovic just beat Zverev – the best player on tour over the last few months – and owns a 10-5 head-to-head edge.

At +137, I am backing Djokovic’s higher Elo baseline, hard-court profile, and superior high-leverage numbers to outweigh Medvedev’s recent momentum.