Nuno Borges takes on Novak Djokovic in the Round of 32 at ATP Beijing on September 30, with first serve scheduled for 7:00 am ET. Sitting just 11th in the world, the 39-year-old Djokovic enters as a sizable favorite. The 29-year-old Borges played him tough in their only previous encounter last season, but still wound up losing in straight sets.

Below, I will break down the best bets for Djokovic vs Borges, plus the latest odds and full H2H history.

My first pick is Djokovic on the moneyline, which is offered at a market-best 69¢ (equal to -223 odds) at prediction site Polymarket. The biggest question mark is fitness: Djokovic hasn’t played since losing a five-setter to Mariano Navone at the US Open, his third straight loss. He looked physically ill/unwell throughout. But I’m assuming he wouldn’t be here if he wasn’t physically fit, and this is only a best-of-three.

According to Tennis Abstract ‘s surface-specific Elo ratings, Djokovic holds a hard-court hElo of 1997.1 – fourth-best on tour – compared to just 1773.3 for Borges (42nd), a gap of roughly 224 points that implies approximately a 76% win probability in a best-of-three format. His overall Elo of 2047.2 versus Borges’s 1817.1 tells the same story, and while Djokovic’s peak Elo of 2463.2 is a decade behind him, his current hard-court mark still towers over most of the draw. That kind of edge validates his price and then some .

The 52 week stat comparisons from Tennis Ratio reinforce that separation. Djokovic posts a 70.4% break-point save rate versus 65.7% for Borges and converts 39.2% of his break-point opportunities to the Portuguese player’s 36.8%. But the real story is the efficiency gap: Djokovic’s match efficiency rating sits at a towering 2.555 compared to Borges’s 1.070, meaning the Serbian closes out matches at a dramatically higher rate when he gains an advantage.

His dominance efficiency (1.323 vs. 1.073) and breakpoint prevail ratio (1.424 vs. 1.140) confirm Djokovic squeezes more value from every pressure moment. The pressure-point data underscores this: Djokovic wins 66.6% of pressure points on serve and 38.4% on return, while Borges sits at 66.4% and 34.9%, respectively.

That return-side gap is the key – Djokovic generates more stress in the opponent’s service games and finishes the job more reliably.

In their lone prior meeting at the 2025 ATP Athens quarterfinal, Djokovic secured a 7-6, 6-4 victory. He won 78 total points to just 63 for Borges, out-aced Borges (9-7), and successfully fended off both break points he faced while converting one of his five break chances.