The Dallas Cowboys host the Washington Commanders in an early-season NFC East clash today as both squads search for their first victory. Kickoff takes place at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.

As a home favorite in the NFL odds , Dallas aims to establish an offensive rhythm behind quarterback Dak Prescott and star wideout CeeDee Lamb. Meanwhile, Washington embraces the road underdog role. The Commanders will rely on veteran receiver Stefon Diggs and quarterback Jayden Daniels to test the Dallas secondary.

Keep reading for my Commanders vs Cowboys expert picks, along with the latest odds and betting splits, below.

My favorite Commander vs Cowboys expert pick is for Prescott and Co. to clear their team total. Backing Dallas to clear  27.5 points  relies on proven offensive infrastructure, home-field efficiency, and structural matchup advantages rather than overreacting to early-season noise.

At home in AT&T Stadium, the Cowboys consistently play at a faster pace on turf, maximizing drive volume and red zone finishing. With NFL MVP odds contender Prescott commanding a pass-heavy attack centered around CeeDee Lamb, Dallas creates immediate mismatches against a Washington secondary that historically struggles against perimeter route runners and middle-of-the-field zone concepts.

Crucially, historical precedent strongly backs this ceiling: across  15 career starts against Washington , Prescott has led Dallas to a  13-2 record , averaging  33.4 points per game  while posting a 32-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In fact, Dallas has reached  at least 28 points in 11 of those 15 meetings  (73.3%), including scoring 30, 44, 38, 45, and 56 across five of their most recent encounters.

Even if Washington’s offense sustains extended drives, Dallas’ explosive passing game and Brandon Aubrey’s reliable plus-range field goal kicking provide multiple avenues to post points in a hurry. Expect the Cowboys’ home efficiency to push them past the 27.5 mark. Kalshi is offering the most favorable price on this line at -108, so grab the Kalshi promo code now and get in on the action.

Odds as of September 18, 2026, from BetMGM . Use the BetMGM promo code to score a bonus to use on this matchup.