The Week 5 edition of Thursday Night Football sees the Dallas Cowboys (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U) hosting the winless and shorthanded Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, 2-2 O/U) at AT\&T Stadium at 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.

Dallas enters as a nine-point home favorite with the game total set at 47.5 points. With Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield sidelined for the second straight week, the Buccaneers turn to rookie Jalon Daniels against a vulnerable Dallas defense allowing 28.0 points and 389.5 yards per game.

My Buccaneers vs Cowboys same-game parlay centers on a correlated game script where Dak Prescott continues his aerial tear against Tampa Bay’s secondary, pushing the score over the 47.5-point total while a desperate Buccaneers squad leans on ground volume and back-door scoring to stay within an inflated two-possession spread.

Odds from BetMGM on Oct 7 and are subject to change.

Dak Prescott has cleared 268.5 passing yards in four of his last six starts, including their last three regular-season appearances in 2026. The Dallas quarterback recently produced 335 passing yards on the road against Houston, logged 276 yards against Baltimore, and registered 279 yards against Washington. He also possesses a strong historical baseline against Tampa Bay, completing a January 2023 playoff victory with 305 passing yards and four touchdowns.

While the Tampa Bay defense allows 204.3 passing yards per game (ninth), Dallas generates 30.5 points per contest (second). The Cowboys operate at a 51.0% third-down conversion rate (fourth) and run 62.5 plays per game (14th). This specific leg succeeds through pure passing volume, relying on Prescott’s arm to extend drives and stress defensive coverages.

The Cowboys cultivate a high-scoring game environment, ranking second in the NFL with 30.5 points generated per game while surrendering 28.0 points defensively (28th). Dallas bolsters this offensive output with an 81.3% red-zone touchdown conversion rate (third). Tampa Bay contributes 19.0 points per game while allowing 24.0 points to opponents.

This total directly correlates with Prescott clearing his passing yards in the first leg; an elevated passing script inherently drives the scoring required to breach 47.5 points. Furthermore, Dallas yields 239.3 passing yards per game (24th) and has surrendered nine receiving touchdowns (26th). This defensive vulnerability ensures Tampa Bay can post the requisite offensive numbers to push this combined total over the line.