The Octagon returns to the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles for a stacked night of fights. The undisputed flyweight title is on the line in the massive main event between two bitter rivals.

Joshua Van looks to defend his belt against top contender Alexandre Pantoja. Read on for my favorite UFC 331 main card predictions, picks and lines, plus my best bets and long-shot plays, headlined by Van vs Pantoja 2.

Odds as of fight week at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 331 on Saturday.

Van vs Pantoja is by far the closest fight on the main card at -130 and +110, which is rare for a title fight and tells you how little separates these two on paper. Former Olympian Gable Steveson at -2000 is the heaviest favorite on the board by a wide margin, with the Under 1.5 in that fight priced at -500.

The middle of the card sits in a similar range, with Tsarukyan at -325, Choi at -270 and Baraniewski at -245. Both of those 2.5-round totals are pick ’em at -115 either way, so the value in those fights lives in the method markets rather than the moneylines.

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I get the case for prime Alexandre Pantoja, but I do not think this is that version anymore. Joshua Van is almost 12 years younger, and this matchup feels more about speed, first step and clean boxing than name value.

Pantoja still brings real grappling volume, with nine takedowns and 8:15 of control against Steve Erceg, then three takedowns and 7:20 of control in the Kai Kara-France submission. That is the danger, but Van’s 75% takedown defense and improved get-up game change the math for me. Pantoja is still clearly the better grappler, but Van continues to prove that he is one of the best defensive wrestlers in the sport.