Prediction markets excel at measuring panic, but when it comes to the NFL’s next head coach fired market on Kalshi, public sentiment has created glaring discrepancies between contract realities, on-field performance, and actual organizational urgency. While market favorites Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni absorb heavy trading volume, several dormant longshots carry vastly underpriced termination equity heading into week six.

The table below lists the current next-coach-fired odds/prices for all 32 bench bosses at Kalshi . Under the table, find my analysis of the best and worst value on the board

Washington’s Dan Quinn is the heavy favorite, trading at 54 cents, which is equal to -117 odds – making him the odds-on favorite.

Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni and Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles are next at 28 cents (+257) and 27 cents (+270), respectively.

Washington has stumbled to a 1-3-1 start, undone by a defense that ranks 30th in scoring defense while yielding 29.8 points per game (149 total points). With an impending Monday Night Football showdown in Santa Clara against an undefeated 49ers squad that boasts an NFL-best +61 point differential, a blowout loss on national television could push Washington’s ownership group toward the eject button.

In Philadelphia, Nick Sirianni commands the second-highest odds on the board at 28¢. The Eagles have unraveled during an ugly three-game losing skid with a -20 point differential. Philadelphia’s offense ranks 29th in scoring at just 18.4 points per contest, while Jalen Hurts has absorbed 13 sacks and tossed three interceptions.

Given the passionate Philadelphia media market and front-office expectations of an immediate Super Bowl window, Sirianni’s seat is undeniably warm. Yet, general manager Howie Roseman historically avoids mid-season coaching changes while division contention remains salvageable, making Sirianni slightly rich at nearly 30-percent implied probability.

Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles sits right behind Sirianni at 27¢. The Buccaneers are 1-4 with a -12 point differential, having surrendered 17 sacks while failing to establish an offensive rhythm. Bowles operates in a weak NFC South, but another multi-game slide without answers could exhaust the front office’s patience by mid-November.