Manchester United travels to Craven Cottage on Sunday, September 20, at 11:30 AM ET. Fulham has one draw and three losses in league play under Álvaro Arbeloa, though the Cottagers beat West Ham 3-2 in the EFL Cup after drawing 0-0 at Liverpool. United has four points from four league matches and is coming off a 1-0 Manchester derby loss and a 3-2 EFL Cup defeat to Brighton.

The visitors have won just two of their last seven away matches and two of their last 14 Premier League games as favorites. Fulham has scored at least twice in four straight competitive home games, making the under 3.5 the safer angle than the United moneyline. I’m breaking down the odds, team trends, matchup history and relevant stats in this comprehensive preview, as well as my best bets.

Odds as of September 17, 2026 at 7:44 PM ET from BetMGM .

United enters this fixture as the even-money road favorite, but the price does not fully account for its recent results. The preview context is especially relevant: United won only two of its last 14 Premier League games as a favorite. Fulham’s +240 price reflects its winless league start, but its midweek 3-2 cup victory and four-match competitive home scoring streak make the underdog more dangerous than its league record alone suggests.

By stripping away the sportsbook vig from the moneyline, I can uncover the normalized probabilities. After removing the 6.44% house edge, United possesses a vig-free win probability of 46.98%. Fulham’s true implied chance of victory sits at 27.63%, and the draw normalizes to 25.39%.

Placing a $20 wager on United’s +100 moneyline yields a total payout of $40. Placing that exact same $20 bet on Fulham (+240) returns a total payout of $68 if the Cottagers secure three points.

Looking at opening lines reveals massive shifts. The spread initially opened at United -0.5 with -120 odds, which relaxed slightly to -111. The Over 3.5 goals opened as a -189 favorite, but the market flipped it into a +140 underdog. Those moves suggest the market has become more cautious about an open, high-scoring game.

United owns the stronger season-long attacking numbers in this table, averaging more shots and shots on target than Fulham. Those figures, however, should not be treated as proof of current superiority in isolation: United’s opening schedule includes a 5-2 win over Ipswich, while its latest week brought losses to Manchester City and Brighton.